As we near the night of November 5th, things are tightening. Since President Biden dropped out of the race, things have been flipped on its head. Vice President Kamala Harris currently leads Former President Donald Trump by an average of 3.4 percentage points nationally, and she has been consistently making ground since she has been the nominee. The key to this election are 7 swing states; Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Harris holds strong leads in the polls in Michigan and Wisconsin. She holds a narrower lead in Pennsylvania. The other 4 states are almost a perfect statistical tie. Of those remaining swing states, neither candidate has a lead over 1 percentage point in any of them. Former President Trump does not currently have a substantial lead in any of the 7 swing states. Harris’ biggest leads are in Michigan and Wisconsin, 2.9 and 3.6 percentage points, respectively. All polling data used in this article has been sourced on August 27, and is subject to change.
The DNC, Democratic National Convention was also last week. Usually a political party’s national convention gives them a substantial boost in the polls – known as a ‘convention bounce’. The convention bounce has become less prominent in recent elections. In 1992, both candidates had a convention bounce of 5 and 8 percentage points. In 2020, it was 1 and 0. After the Republican National Convention earlier this summer, Donald Trump did not receive a huge poll boost, which could be because of Joe Biden dropping out of the race right after the convention. As the DNC concluded last Friday, polls do not reflect a large boost… yet.
Another huge factor in this race happened this weekend. Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr dropped out of the race and officially endorsed Donald Trump. Kennedy declined sharply in the polls going from roughly 10-14 percentage points to 3-6 percentage points in the recent months. RFK’s endorsement comes off of moments of steam between the two candidates. Both Kennedy and Trump have taken shots at each other before – but now they are joining forces to attempt to divert a Harris-Walz administration.
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